098
FXUS64 KTSA 091121
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY, AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
- AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DANGEROUS HEAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY, AND WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT/OUTFLOW. AFTER CRUNCHING THE
NUMBERS, SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND IN THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY COULD REACH 110 DEGREE
HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER, MUCH LIKE
WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY, PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING AT THIS
TIME.
THE PAST COUPLE MORNINGS THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY HIGH-BASED
(FORCING ROOTED ROUGHLY 600MB) "SUNRISE SURPRISE" SHOWERS. RECENT
RADARS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE (THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST) IS FORCING A BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY INSERT LOW SHOWER POP MENTION TO COVER, DESPITE THE LOW
COVERAGE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN
THE PLAINS THAT WILL LIKELY HANG UP TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, IT'S
LIKELY TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEW 00Z HRRR HAS STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SOME OUTFLOW, AND ALSO INDICATES SOME
ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER W AR AND FAR E OK. THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE N AND W OF TULSA, AND THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LATEST MODEL BLEND (NBM). STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LARGER SCALE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RAISE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE COLLAPSES AND RETRACTS BACK TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS AND AN END TO THE HEAT HEADLINES TO START
THE WEEK.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE PREVALENT
ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHILE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB AGAIN, BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST LOW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN MAINLY TERRAIN-
INDUCED STORM CHANCES.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES NOTED CURRENTLY.
COVERAGE SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE MORNING AND PRECLUDES ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE DYING OFF AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR KBVO...BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW IN THE TAFS.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 99 79 97 75 / 10 10 10 30
FSM 100 76 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 98 76 97 74 / 10 0 0 10
BVO 99 75 97 71 / 10 20 20 40
FYV 96 73 94 71 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 97 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 98 75 96 74 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 97 76 96 73 / 10 10 20 30
F10 98 76 96 73 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 97 74 94 74 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053>068-070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ001-002-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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