959
FXUS64 KTSA 091746
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AS SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVES PASSES.
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A CORRIDOR OF HIGH
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR NE OK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY
ACROSS NE OK AND POINTS NORTHWARD. CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WHICH RAISES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAIN NEAR CRITERIA AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS TOWARD HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE NEARING NE OK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG A SLOW MOVING WEAK
COLD FRONT.
A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT / CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEEPENING
MOISTURE AND SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
WEAK TROUGHING MAY REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS, HOWEVER A QUICKER RETURN TO STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT IS ALSO
WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WHICH WOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
AND HOT. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOW CHANCES OF DAILY TERRAIN FAVORED
PRECIP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WELL AS AFTERNOON CU, MAINLY ACROSS
SE OK AND NW AR. VERY LIGHT, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE UNLIKELY.
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
SE KS/ FAR N OK... POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BVO. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 97 76 94 / 10 10 30 30
FSM 77 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 20
MLC 77 97 74 95 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 76 97 71 92 / 20 20 40 40
FYV 73 95 71 93 / 0 10 10 30
BYV 74 97 73 94 / 0 10 10 30
MKO 76 97 74 94 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 77 97 73 94 / 20 20 30 40
F10 75 97 73 94 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 74 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-019-020-
029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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