134
FXUS64 KTSA 092256
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AS SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVES PASSES.
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A CORRIDOR OF HIGH
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR NE OK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY
ACROSS NE OK AND POINTS NORTHWARD. CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WHICH RAISES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAIN NEAR CRITERIA AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS TOWARD HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE NEARING NE OK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG A SLOW MOVING WEAK
COLD FRONT.
A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT / CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEEPENING
MOISTURE AND SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
WEAK TROUGHING MAY REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS, HOWEVER A QUICKER RETURN TO STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT IS ALSO
WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WHICH WOULD BE A RETURN TO DRY
AND HOT. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOW CHANCES OF DAILY TERRAIN FAVORED
PRECIP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL THIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KBVO AND ACROSS NORTHWEST AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
AND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 97 76 94 / 10 10 30 30
FSM 77 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 20
MLC 77 97 74 95 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 76 97 71 92 / 20 20 40 40
FYV 73 95 71 93 / 0 10 10 30
BYV 74 97 73 94 / 0 10 10 30
MKO 76 97 74 94 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 77 97 73 94 / 20 20 30 40
F10 75 97 73 94 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 74 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-019-020-
029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06
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