182
FXUS64 KTSA 101747
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT ONGOING WITH HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TOMORROW THROUGH MID WEEK.
- UNSETTLED PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC HIGHER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TIME FRAMES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
ALONG WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONGOING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NW
OK INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN CORRIDOR OF SE OK THROUGH NW AR,
OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL INCREASING BE THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING STORMS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CONGEALING OUTFLOWS
MAY PUSH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OK / KS BORDER
REGION. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AMPLE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MAINTAIN STORMS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT PRIMARILY FAVORING
AREAS NEAR THE OK / KS BORDER. RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHOWER AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE RESIDUAL COMPOSITE OUTFLOW /
FRONTAL ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE CORRIDOR MORE ALIGNED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND DOWNBURST
WIND POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT TROUGHING REMAINS EXTENDED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. EXPECTATION
IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE WEST.
THE TREND TOWARD A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL CARRY INTO LATE
WEEK BY WHICH TIME HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF MID AUGUST
WILL RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
OUTSIDE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NE OK. LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SITE
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE VSBY REDUCTIONS
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY MID AND HIGH CLOUD
ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 94 73 91 / 30 40 40 40
FSM 75 97 74 96 / 10 20 20 40
MLC 75 95 72 94 / 10 20 20 30
BVO 71 91 69 90 / 50 50 50 40
FYV 70 93 69 91 / 20 30 20 50
BYV 71 93 69 93 / 20 30 20 50
MKO 74 95 71 93 / 20 30 20 30
MIO 72 93 70 91 / 40 50 50 50
F10 72 94 71 92 / 20 30 30 30
HHW 73 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-
070>074.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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