932
FXUS64 KTSA 112328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS/ HAIL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
- DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
WEEK, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RISING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/ NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, LEAVING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. CURRENTLY, HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG THE I-
44 CORRIDOR, THOUGH AT LEAST LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCV APPROACHING FROM
W OK.
GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WITH A TENDENCY FOR TRAINING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE FA WHERE FLOOD POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS THE HIGHEST. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY REFLECTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-1" IN THIS
AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4" POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, STORM
MODE IS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY, SOMETIMES
SIGNIFICANTLY, ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH RECENT CAMS SUGGESTING THE BRUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. IF THIS BECOMES THE FAVORED
SOLUTION, THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD WATCH AND POPS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AS ALWAYS, PLEASE DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS, AND
BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT WHEN DRIVING AT NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER
70S OR UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
OVERHEAD, MAY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH 20-40% POPS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FA. LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD WITH WEAK TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE REGION... MAINLY
ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SE CONUS
RIDGING IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE ON
OUR CWA. WHILE LOW RAIN CHANCES DO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO RISE AGAIN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES RETURNING BY THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN TYPICAL FOR AUGUST.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
OVERHEAD, MAY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH 20-40% POPS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FA. LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD WITH WEAK TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE REGION... MAINLY
ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SE CONUS
RIDGING IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE ON
OUR CWA. WHILE LOW RAIN CHANCES DO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO RISE AGAIN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES RETURNING BY THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN TYPICAL FOR AUGUST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
ONGOING WIDESPREAD STORMS THROUGH NE OK WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. LESSER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL IS MORE UNCERTAIN BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANT MCV ACROSS CENTRAL OK MOVES SLOWLY EAST. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 90 73 91 / 50 40 20 20
FSM 74 96 75 95 / 20 30 20 30
MLC 72 93 73 93 / 20 30 20 30
BVO 68 88 68 90 / 60 50 20 10
FYV 69 91 68 90 / 20 40 20 30
BYV 70 92 68 90 / 20 40 20 40
MKO 71 91 71 92 / 30 30 20 30
MIO 69 89 69 90 / 40 40 20 20
F10 69 89 70 91 / 30 40 20 30
HHW 72 93 73 92 / 20 20 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-
064>067.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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