761
FXUS64 KTSA 301125
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM DAILY RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- STRONGER COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN RESEMBLES A MORE WINTER-LIKE SHALLOW
COLD AIR SCENARIO RATHER THAN A LATE AUGUST PATTERN, AND THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TODAY (AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS WELL). THE RESULT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, EXCEPT FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH COOLER READINGS TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MID 80S. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS CONTINUING TO BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
A SLIGHT WARMUP, BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL, WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS TO GO
ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS. SOME OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
BY LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
GREATER SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL ADD
PROB30 GROUP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES FOR TIMING OF GREATER
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WITHIN THE PRECIP TONIGHT, HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
MLC/FYV REMAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 67 78 65 / 20 40 40 30
FSM 86 69 83 68 / 10 10 20 20
MLC 83 67 80 66 / 20 40 40 30
BVO 80 64 78 61 / 20 50 50 40
FYV 85 64 81 62 / 0 10 20 20
BYV 85 64 80 62 / 0 10 10 20
MKO 82 67 79 66 / 10 30 30 30
MIO 84 65 79 63 / 10 30 30 30
F10 80 65 78 64 / 20 40 40 30
HHW 82 68 80 67 / 20 40 40 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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