057
FXUS64 KTSA 301728
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD CONSIDER SHELTERING
OPTIONS AND REMAIN WEATHER AWARE, WITH LIGHTNING AND LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
- STRONGER COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER, MAINTAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. LATE THIS
MORNING, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT 700 MB IN THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FUELING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST, A FEW OF WHICH ARE FILTERING
INTO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AT PRESENT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING, CAMS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THE BULK OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS DO
BRING THE EASTERN FRINGES INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. WITH AN APPROACHING LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO FAVOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE POPS FOR TONIGHT HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE SHORT-TERM BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH FIT THE
ABOVE THOUGHTS MORE CLOSELY THAN THE NBM INITIALIZATION VALUES.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED, AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING IN
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY, SHIFTING EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING WITH TIME. A MORE ROBUST
DISTURBANCE REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
IT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT, LEADING TO AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE BIGGER STORY CONCERNS THE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURE EFI VALUES -0.7 TO -0.8 FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXIST ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY /FOR THE SEASON/ CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST, EVEN IN ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURE EFI VALUES ARE SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD. ONE THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING... THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY
BLENDING SOME OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE NBM VALUES IN WITH THE
INITIALIZATION GIVEN THE NBM TYPICALLY UNDERDOES THE MAGNITUDES OF
THESE ELEMENTS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT. THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK INTO CANADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO NUDGE EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE
REGION. AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH STILL NOTICEABLY COOL COMPARED TO WHAT OUR EARLY
SEPTEMBERS HAVE BEEN LIKE LATELY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS FROM TIME
TO TIME, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN
BLANKETED ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY, HIT- OR- MISS, SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 IN OKLAHOMA. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BVO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THESE CHANCES. SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT BVO, TUL, RVS, AND MLC. INCLUDED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THESE SITES, MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND MIDDAY TOMORROW. ARKANSAS TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 77 66 81 / 40 50 40 30
FSM 70 82 68 84 / 10 20 20 20
MLC 67 77 65 83 / 40 50 30 30
BVO 64 77 62 80 / 50 60 40 40
FYV 65 81 63 81 / 10 30 30 30
BYV 66 82 64 81 / 10 20 30 30
MKO 68 77 66 82 / 30 40 30 30
MIO 66 80 64 80 / 20 50 40 50
F10 67 77 65 81 / 40 50 30 30
HHW 69 77 68 83 / 30 60 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67
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