299
FXUS64 KTSA 310538
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD CONSIDER
SHELTERING OPTIONS AND REMAIN WEATHER AWARE, WITH LIGHTNING
AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
- STRONGER COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER, MAINTAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST PLACES, AND SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP AND A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, THE MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODELS, NAMELY THE GFS AND ICON, BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, BUT OTHERS DO NOT, SO FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH TIME
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE ONGOING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS FORECAST AS WELL, THOUGH
THE GREATER POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR KBVO NEAR THE DISTURBANCE
CENTER. THUS, WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR TIMING OF
GREATER PRECIP POTENTIALS MANLY IN THE 14-22Z TIME FRAME. WITHIN
THE PRECIP, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS INTO SUNDAY EVENING,
THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING AT
THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VARIABLE TO AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 83 64 79 / 30 30 30 10
FSM 68 85 67 84 / 10 20 20 30
MLC 66 83 64 82 / 20 30 30 20
BVO 62 83 60 78 / 30 40 30 10
FYV 63 83 61 79 / 20 20 30 40
BYV 63 80 62 78 / 10 20 30 50
MKO 67 83 64 80 / 20 30 30 20
MIO 65 81 62 78 / 20 40 40 30
F10 66 83 63 80 / 30 30 30 10
HHW 68 83 65 83 / 20 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page