276
FXUS64 KTSA 031145
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST TOWARD THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 90
DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, TIGHTENING THE SURFACE
GRADIENT. OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND AS
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING TAKES HOLD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THOSE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S. ANY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE
WEST. A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGES AND MOVE UP ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RE ENTER THE FORECAST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE. COVERAGE AND
AREAL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT, THOUGH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES
WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHERE ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP.
GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE HAS TRENDED MORE AWAY FROM A COOLER AIR
PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE POLAR
JET REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW THE FRONT LOOKS
TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IF
NOT FURTHER NORTH AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG TO THE SOUTH. STILL, AT
LEAST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HELP
LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT A
SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN APPEARS UNLIKELY. SIGNALS THEN POINT TO THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH MORE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG NEAR KBVO AND KFYV THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH
LONG PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE 5-6 KFT LAYER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LAYER CLOUDS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 64 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 89 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 90 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 89 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 86 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 85 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 88 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 87 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
F10 89 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 87 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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