993
FXUS64 KTSA 031732
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST TOWARD THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES UPPER TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN BETWEEN,
WHICH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90, WITH SOUTH WIND
BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE SLOW-MOVING WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK. EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESPOND FURTHER TO SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH BOTH DAYS FEATURING SOME GUSTS IN THE
20- 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. COMBINED WITH PERSISTENCE OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
30% WEST OF HIGHWAY 75, LOW-END FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL DEVELOP,
PRIMARILY IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN I-40 AND US 412 TO THE WEST OF 75,
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS LARGELY BEEN ABSENT THE PAST FEW
WEEKS.
WESTERN TROUGH IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME NEXT WEEK. WHICH FORCES A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH MONDAY/TUESDAY, WHILE A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF MAY
INFLUENCE AREAS AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN AR. RESULTANT RAINFALL
CHANCES DO APPEAR LIMITED IN EITHER CASE, THOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS IN
WESTERN AR MAY SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITHIN MOIST AXIS.
WEAK FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, THOUGH STILL LIKELY A LITTLE ABOVE. BEYOND
MID-WEEK IT APPEARS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK WITH MAIN
WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH, SIGNALING CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY TREND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KFSM WHERE A MORE EASTERLY WIND IS
FORECAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR KFYV, THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 62 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 61 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 60 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 58 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 62 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 63 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
F10 61 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 60 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20
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