593
FXUS64 KTSA 040500
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST TOWARD THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY, WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY
ALSO ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS, WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WARM
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. SERLY SFC WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE DAY AT THE E OK SITES BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 90 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 91 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 89 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 87 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 89 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 87 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
F10 89 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 90 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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