610
FXUS64 KTSA 050527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.
- LIMITED GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND SOUTH
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 412 THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL, WILL LEAD TO A LIMITED GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
412.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY MAY LEAD TO LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL OCCUR, WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, WITH LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL STILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE, BUT TOO WEAK TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. NO RAIN WILL OCCUR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 88 65 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 88 67 85 68 / 0 0 20 10
MLC 88 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 88 60 88 60 / 0 0 10 20
FYV 84 61 84 61 / 0 0 30 10
BYV 83 62 82 63 / 0 10 30 20
MKO 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 85 63 86 62 / 0 0 10 10
F10 87 63 87 64 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 85 65 85 66 / 0 0 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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