946
FXUS64 KTSA 060520
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY,
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
AFTER ANOTHER "COOLER" DAY WEDNESDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS WEEK, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS NEXT WEEKEND, AND INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS AS WELL AT THAT
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOWER CEILINGS, VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH KBVO
LATE MONDAY EVENING, PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 88 61 75 57 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 86 66 84 64 / 30 10 20 10
MLC 87 63 83 59 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 87 56 70 51 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 84 59 78 55 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 82 61 76 57 / 30 20 20 10
MKO 88 63 78 60 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 86 59 73 54 / 0 10 10 10
F10 88 61 78 58 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 86 64 83 63 / 20 10 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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