010
FXUS64 KTSA 070525
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AFTER ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY, A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN TO AREAS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS TO ALL TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT. CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE NE OK SITES IN THE NEAR TERM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IFR, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR
TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NW AR
AND SE OK ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR, THOUGH A TREND TOWARD IFR IN
FAR NW AR IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP
FOR SHOWERS AT KFSM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 57 78 59 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 86 64 81 57 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 84 60 82 57 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 72 52 76 53 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 80 55 77 50 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 78 56 74 51 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 81 60 80 59 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 75 54 77 55 / 10 0 0 0
F10 81 58 80 58 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 87 64 82 60 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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