217
FXUS64 KTSA 071109
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AFTER ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY, A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN TO AREAS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, WITH IFR CIGS FILLING INTO NE OK AND
EVENTUALLY THE FAR NW AR SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT A TREND
TOWARD MVFR LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR TONIGHT AT SOME
POINT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, VALLEY AND LAKE FOG OVER FAR NW AR HAS
LED TO STINTS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS, WHICH COULD PERSIST THRU 14Z.
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED THAT LOW CIGS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO KMLC
OR KFSM DURING THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH DATA IS STARTING TO POINT TO
MVFR CIGS SPREADING IN TONIGHT AT THOSE LOCATIONS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 57 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 86 64 81 57 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 84 60 82 57 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 72 52 76 53 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 80 55 77 50 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 78 56 74 51 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 81 60 80 59 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 75 54 77 55 / 10 0 0 0
F10 81 58 80 58 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 87 64 82 60 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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