464
FXUS64 KTSA 080506
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE. SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, BUT PRODUCE NEGLIGIBLE QPF. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN (<10%) ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SPARSE AT BEST WITH LITTLE OR NO
QPF. AS SUCH, A PLEASANT OCTOBER DAY IS EXPECTED OVERALL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S (LOWER 80S SOUTH), CLEARING SKIES, AND LIGHT ENE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WANING INFLUENCE. AT THE SAME TIME, 500 MB FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY, WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE C
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ALL
IN ALL, CONDITIONS THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY, IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A
POTENT UPPER LOW NAVIGATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SENDING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE CWA WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ALTOGETHER, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE W CONUS THIS WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY ACTING TO SUPPRESS HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA, AND
POTENTIALLY INVITING INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, SO WILL STICK
WITH NBM INITIALIZATION FOR NOW. THIS PROVIDES 10-20% POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AND PRODUCE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AT 10-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. IN COMBINATION WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 40% RANGE AND LACK OF RECENT WETTING RAINS, A
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER A COUPLE SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
(50S AND UPPER 40S IN NW AR) TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND RUN ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/ 60S. IF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES MAY COOL CLOSER TO AVERAGE MONDAY/ TUESDAY.
FOR NOW, A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR (IFR AT TIMES FAR NW AR) CIGS WILL
AFFECT SOME NE OK AND FAR NW AR TAF SITES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OUT OF KTUL AND KRVS BY 08Z. CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN FAR NW AR, MOVING OUT BY AROUND 15Z.
LOW-END VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO KFSM BY 13Z
AND WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY THERE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BROKEN MID CLOUD WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 57 78 59 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 87 65 80 58 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 85 60 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 73 51 76 53 / 10 0 10 0
FYV 81 55 77 51 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 79 56 74 51 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 80 59 80 59 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 75 53 77 54 / 20 0 0 0
F10 80 56 80 58 / 10 0 10 10
HHW 86 64 83 60 / 0 0 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page