434
FXUS64 KTSA 081443
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
STRATUS EVOLUTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF E OK / NW AR WILL BE THE
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS MORNING. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE. SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, BUT PRODUCE NEGLIGIBLE QPF. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN (<10%) ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SPARSE AT BEST WITH LITTLE OR NO
QPF. AS SUCH, A PLEASANT OCTOBER DAY IS EXPECTED OVERALL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S (LOWER 80S SOUTH), CLEARING SKIES, AND LIGHT ENE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WANING INFLUENCE. AT THE SAME TIME, 500 MB FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY, WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE C
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ALL
IN ALL, CONDITIONS THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY, IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A
POTENT UPPER LOW NAVIGATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SENDING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE CWA WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ALTOGETHER, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE W CONUS THIS WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY ACTING TO SUPPRESS HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA, AND
POTENTIALLY INVITING INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, SO WILL STICK
WITH NBM INITIALIZATION FOR NOW. THIS PROVIDES 10-20% POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AND PRODUCE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AT 10-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. IN COMBINATION WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 40% RANGE AND LACK OF RECENT WETTING RAINS, A
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER A COUPLE SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
(50S AND UPPER 40S IN NW AR) TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND RUN ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/ 60S. IF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES MAY COOL CLOSER TO AVERAGE MONDAY/ TUESDAY.
FOR NOW, A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
AN EAST-WEST BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS STRETCHING FROM NW AR TO NE/EC
OK WILL IMPACT KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS COMING OFF OF LAKE EUFAULA IS IMPACTING KMLC
WITH IFR CIGS. FINALLY, MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE DAY AT KFSM. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THIS EVENING MOST PLACES.
INCREASING MID CLOUD IS EXPECTED AT THE NE OK SITES AFTER 06Z.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 59 81 58 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 80 58 80 55 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 83 58 82 54 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 76 53 79 54 / 10 0 10 0
FYV 77 51 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 74 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 80 59 79 56 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 77 54 77 54 / 0 0 10 0
F10 80 58 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
HHW 83 60 80 55 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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