071
FXUS64 KTSA 082318
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A QUIET, PLEASANT OCTOBER DAY IS IN STORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S(SOUTH).
GENERALLY LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL PERSIST, BECOMING MOSTLY CALM AFTER
SUNSET UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. A SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST PLACES.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
ONE MORE SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED, THOUGH A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS A WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IF ANYTHING. AFTER THURSDAY,
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION BY LATE WEEKEND TROUGHING
TAKES OVER ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY SUNDAY, WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS FORECAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND MIN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW
30% WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RECENT
DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE RECEPTIVE FUELS FOR
GRASSLAND WILDFIRE CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.
A MAINLY WARM AND DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW END SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL ENTER THE FORECAST
ON MONDAY AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ON THE FRINGES OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
IN THE LARGER FLOW ALOFT COULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED TO
THE SOUTH A BIT. GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS DIVERGENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY GETS AND THUS HOW FAR INTO THE AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL
PUSH. WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SCENARIO GIVEN RECENT TRENDS
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS
MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OF I-44 ON
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CLOSE
OUT THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6 KFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 59 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 58 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 55 81 55 84 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 52 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 52 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 59 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 56 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
F10 59 81 56 85 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 61 82 56 81 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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