391
FXUS64 KTSA 091051
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
ANOTHER PREDOMINANTLY QUIET DAY IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PERHAPS ALLOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NE OK AND SOUTHERN KS.
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW, IF ANY, AND POPS REMAIN LESS
THAN 10%. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S... MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
STATES. A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR. MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE EITHER. RIDGING MOVES MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTENSIFIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME, GENERALLY IN THE 80S
OR NEAR 90 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE C PLAINS. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44... GENERALLY 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, LACK OF RECENT WETTING RAINS,
AND MIN RHS IN THE 20- 40% RANGE, AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK.
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND PROVIDE AN ELONGATED PLUME OF SW FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, HELPING TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM NW MEXICO/ E PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN TERMS OF BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND
QPF, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE
TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN ON MONDAY. GIVEN ONGOING DISCREPANCIES, POPS
REMAIN ON THE LOWER END... GENERALLY 15-25%. RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST CONTINUING FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING MOSTLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE KS BORDER, WITH DEVELOPMENT MUCH MORE PATCHY TO THE
SOUTH. INSERTED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KBVO THRU 16Z CLOSER TO LARGER
AREA OF LOW CLOUD, WITH JUST A SCATTERED MENTION AT KTUL AND
KRVS. A SCT TO BKN DECK OF 5KFT CLOUD IS EXPTD ACROSS NE OK LATER
IN THE DAY. SOME SCT MID CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED OVER IN NW AR,
MAINLY THIS MORNING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 59 86 63 / 10 0 10 0
FSM 80 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 83 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 79 54 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 78 48 81 57 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 74 52 79 58 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 80 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 77 56 81 61 / 0 10 10 0
F10 82 56 85 59 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 82 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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