854
FXUS64 KTSA 251722
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OVERALL.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY SPINS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST. A DRY SLOT IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON ITS EASTERN SIDE. POPS WILL TREND
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS REPLACED
BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE DRY SLOT. THE 12Z HRRR HAS AN
AXIS OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL, OR MORE PRECISELY, SOUTH-
CENTRAL OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS THERE.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. KEPT HIGH TEMPS COOL WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASED AREA OF VORTICITY LIFTING
NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS VORT MAX INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET
AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. LIKE LAST NIGHT, THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA, WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUS,
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY WEST
OF A BARTLESVILLE TO MUSKOGEE TO HUGO LINE INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THE FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST FROM
THE MAIN INSTABILITY.
NEARLY SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE CWA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL AID IN A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OF A HALF INCH TO
LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH AGAIN THE GREATER POTENTIAL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BARTLESVILLE TO MUSKOGEE TO HUGO LINE. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY TRY TO MAKE IT INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW NEARS THE CWA, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE
REGION, AND THUS DECREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. SOME SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA,
DEPENDING IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, IT
CONTINUES LOOK AS IF THE GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS HOLDS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES DID NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, AND THESE TEMPS LOOK TO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, TEMPS TRY TO WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS THE GREATER PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
ADDITIONAL MAINLY RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND EXIT WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DEPARTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH. AS THE RAINS
TAPER OFF, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 60S
NORTH TO LOW 70S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY, AND
THEN DIG SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND STRENGTHEN
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA, WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TUESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO FEED ON
AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO EXIST
FOR MANY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MORE LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOW QUICKLY EXITING. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, MODELS WANT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AN UPPER LOW OVER OK WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COOL AND SATURATED BL WILL
SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL OVERSPREAD OF IFR OR BLO CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 56 62 52 / 90 40 30 0
FSM 63 58 66 54 / 90 70 40 10
MLC 66 56 68 52 / 70 60 30 10
BVO 60 51 60 48 / 100 50 20 10
FYV 62 52 61 48 / 90 70 50 10
BYV 58 52 57 50 / 80 70 70 20
MKO 62 56 64 53 / 80 60 30 0
MIO 60 53 60 51 / 90 60 30 10
F10 64 55 64 52 / 80 70 30 0
HHW 69 58 70 54 / 80 70 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
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