330
FXUS64 KTSA 252339
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OVERALL.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
MORNING. A DRY SLOT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUNCHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS HAS ALLOWED PRECIP COVERAGE
TO LESSEN THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION, WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER LOW. PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES DOWN SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD WHERE ANY STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS COULD CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA,
THOUGH LIKELY IN A WEAKENING STATE AS INSTABILITY WANES FURTHER
EAST. STILL, SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERY/MISTY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CONTINUED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LEADING
TO SOME 70S ALONG THE RED RIVER. AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS,
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS, BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BECOME CUTOFF AND INTENSIFY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH BETTER CHANCES
BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF ANY RAIN DOES OCCUR.
THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD OR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS OF 40 PLUS MPH. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
WEDNESDAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AS SKIES CLEAR, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND LOWER
40S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WEAK
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MOIST EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONALLY LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST WITH -DZ TOWARD DAYBREAK
WITH CONTINUED POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR
ACROSS OK TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 62 52 66 / 40 30 0 10
FSM 58 66 54 69 / 70 40 10 0
MLC 56 68 52 71 / 60 30 10 0
BVO 51 60 48 64 / 50 20 10 10
FYV 52 61 48 66 / 70 50 10 10
BYV 52 57 50 61 / 70 70 20 0
MKO 56 64 53 68 / 60 30 0 0
MIO 53 60 51 65 / 60 30 10 10
F10 55 64 52 69 / 70 30 0 0
HHW 58 70 54 71 / 70 20 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
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