365
FXUS64 KTSA 260526
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
OVERALL.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, THEN EAST TODAY, WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW DEPARTS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY, WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE
MORE SUN BREAKS. RESULTING HIGH TEMPS ARE HELD IN THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH OF I-40 AND UPPER 60S/ LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS)
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
AREA AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY,
BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/ THUNDER POTENTIAL BACK TO THE FORECAST.
STILL GENERALLY EXPECTING RAIN TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
(QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS), THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
TRENDED QPF UPWARD IN RECENT RUNS AND THERE ARE SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH PAINT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER TOTALS NEAR HALF AN INCH
OR GREATER SOMEWHERE IN THE FA. NBM QPF HAS INCREASED ACCORDINGLY,
AND CURRENTLY PAINTS HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS NW AR. GIVEN THE DIVERSE
MODEL OUTCOMES AND RESULTING LOWER CONFIDENCE, WILL LET NBM TOTALS
RIDE FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CAMS THUS FAR ARE
CONSIDERABLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS MODEL SOLUTIONS EVENTUALLY
CONVERGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR EAST
ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES TO FAR NE OK AND
NW AR. WIDESPREAD, STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
ECONUS TROUGHING IS PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WEAK RIDGING AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS FEATURE DRY, AND THIS OUTCOME IS FAVORED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S (LOWER 70S SOUTH).
LOW TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S NEXT WEEK, BUT FALL
INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A FREEZE, BUT AREAS OF FROST MAY
DEVELOP MID TO LATE WEEK, JUST IN TIME TO WELCOME THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OK, WHILE
QUICKLY TRENDING THAT WAY ACROSS WESTERN AR EARLY IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KFSM, OTHERWISE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, WHILE
DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OK FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR TO RETURN AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 53 67 54 / 30 0 0 20
FSM 66 55 68 55 / 60 10 0 20
MLC 68 53 71 54 / 50 10 0 20
BVO 61 50 65 50 / 20 0 10 30
FYV 63 48 66 49 / 60 10 0 20
BYV 58 50 61 51 / 60 10 0 20
MKO 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20
MIO 61 52 66 53 / 40 10 0 20
F10 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20
HHW 70 55 71 56 / 40 10 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page