633
FXUS64 KTSA 261322
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
822 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 821 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ON AVERAGE.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CURRENT WV SAT IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE CENTER OF
AN UPPER LOW SMACK DAB OVER NE OK THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST.
SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NE OK INTO NW AR JUST AHEAD OF
IT, WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ESTIMATED BY RADAR. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN WITH TIME, WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR LATER
TODAY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. THE LATEST CAMS DO NOT SHOW
APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDER, SO THUNDER PROBS WERE REDUCED
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. THE COOLER MOS WON YESTERDAY'S TEMP
FORECAST AND IT'S IN THE FAVORED AREA OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TODAY, SO WILL LEAN ON CONSMOS FOR TODAY'S HIGH TEMP FORECAST.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, THEN EAST TODAY, WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW DEPARTS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY, WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE
MORE SUN BREAKS. RESULTING HIGH TEMPS ARE HELD IN THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH OF I-40 AND UPPER 60S/ LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS)
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
AREA AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY,
BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/ THUNDER POTENTIAL BACK TO THE FORECAST.
STILL GENERALLY EXPECTING RAIN TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
(QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS), THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
TRENDED QPF UPWARD IN RECENT RUNS AND THERE ARE SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH PAINT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER TOTALS NEAR HALF AN INCH
OR GREATER SOMEWHERE IN THE FA. NBM QPF HAS INCREASED ACCORDINGLY,
AND CURRENTLY PAINTS HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS NW AR. GIVEN THE DIVERSE
MODEL OUTCOMES AND RESULTING LOWER CONFIDENCE, WILL LET NBM TOTALS
RIDE FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CAMS THUS FAR ARE
CONSIDERABLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS MODEL SOLUTIONS EVENTUALLY
CONVERGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR EAST
ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES TO FAR NE OK AND
NW AR. WIDESPREAD, STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
ECONUS TROUGHING IS PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WEAK RIDGING AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ENSUING.
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT THE BULK OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS FEATURE DRY, AND THIS OUTCOME IS FAVORED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S (LOWER 70S SOUTH).
LOW TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S NEXT WEEK, BUT FALL
INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A FREEZE, BUT AREAS OF FROST MAY
DEVELOP MID TO LATE WEEK, JUST IN TIME TO WELCOME THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY RAISE CEILINGS TO
MVFR AT NW AR SITES THIS MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, BEFORE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS RETURN AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 53 67 54 / 20 0 0 20
FSM 66 55 68 55 / 40 10 0 20
MLC 66 53 71 54 / 40 10 0 20
BVO 60 50 65 50 / 20 0 10 30
FYV 61 48 66 49 / 50 10 0 20
BYV 57 50 61 51 / 60 10 0 20
MKO 64 53 68 54 / 30 10 0 20
MIO 60 52 66 53 / 30 10 0 20
F10 64 53 68 54 / 30 10 0 20
HHW 68 55 71 56 / 30 10 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page