629
FXUS64 KTSA 261707
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OVERALL.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS MOVED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY,
WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY, DREARY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL
PRIMARILY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH
A LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE
AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
OTHERWISE, NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER.
SLIGHTLY MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHERE MORE CLEARING
TAKES PLACE, AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR MONDAY, THOUGH PESKY MORNING FOG
AND CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF A WARMUP MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE, WITH
SOME 70S POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH. A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE ON
MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SET TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
AN ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING
LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLANTED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TRENDS
IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST
AND THUS GREATER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY.
THUS, RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LACKING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH LIMITED TIME FOR RECOVERY FOLLOWING THE CURRENT
SYSTEM. BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS, WHERE SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO THESE AREAS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
OTHER STORY WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY PRODUCT ISSUANCE IN LATER SHIFTS.
SKIES LOOK TO BRIEFLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENS WHILE DOING SO. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A
RATHER CLASSIC, RAW FALL DAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER, COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
RATHER STRONG 925-850MB FLOW OVERHEAD WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DAY FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, THOUGH THE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE MIXING SOMEWHAT. STILL WIND GUSTS OF 30 PLUS MPH ARE STILL
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO EXIT THURSDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LESSENING WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
FROST POTENTIAL LOOMING AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPS SEASONABLY COOL INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NOVEMBER.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
PILOTS CAN EXPECT POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COOL, SATURATED BL REMAINS IN PLACE. IFR OR BLO CIGS/VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 66 54 61 / 0 0 30 50
FSM 55 69 55 63 / 10 0 20 60
MLC 53 70 55 64 / 0 0 30 50
BVO 49 64 50 60 / 0 0 40 50
FYV 48 66 50 61 / 10 0 20 70
BYV 50 61 51 59 / 10 0 20 80
MKO 54 68 55 61 / 0 0 30 50
MIO 51 65 52 60 / 0 0 30 60
F10 53 68 53 62 / 0 0 30 50
HHW 54 71 57 66 / 0 0 20 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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