100
FXUS64 KTSA 270525
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND LOW THUNDER CHANCES TO THE
AREA.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA (40
MPH).
- MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
OUR SLUGGISH UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FINALLY DEPARTING THE REGION AND
BRINGING AN END TO MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG/ DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS
MORNING. FOG SHOULD LIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE STUBBORN AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS, SUN BREAKS WILL
LIKELY STILL OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS (60S NORTH, LOWER 70S SOUTH). GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TODAY, THOUGH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE RED RIVER, HELPING TO PULL A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO TICK UP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING/ AFTERNOON, BUT
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WITH WHO WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTAINING THE BETTER
MOISTURE. SOME SOLUTIONS PULL THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH INTO NE OK/ NW
AR, WHILE OTHERS KEEP RETURN FLOW RESTRICTED TO SE OK. EITHER WAY,
IT APPEARS AN AXIS OF 0.5" OR GREATER RAIN TOTALS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, COINCIDING WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA WITH
DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FRONT, WITH MANY NORTHERN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S DESPITE SOME AFTERNOON
SUN.
IT STILL APPEARS NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG, WITH GUSTS NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(30-40 MPH). WINDS DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THIS
IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE, ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR TO ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES JUST TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FILLS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS,
KEEPING PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN CONTINUED CAA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN
THE 50S OR UPPER 40S ACROSS NW AR ZONES.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN NE OK AND NW AR. FREEZING TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, BUT FROST MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING THE CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL
AND PERHAPS BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. IT APPEARS
FALL MAY FINALLY BE HERE TO STAY, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG WILL IMPACT TERMINALS
THROUGH MID MORNING. FLIGHT LEVELS WILL VARY BUT MOST SITES WILL
BE IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RETURN OF
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 55 60 44 / 10 30 60 20
FSM 70 56 63 46 / 0 30 70 30
MLC 70 56 63 43 / 10 50 70 20
BVO 65 51 59 42 / 10 40 70 20
FYV 66 50 60 39 / 10 30 80 40
BYV 61 51 59 40 / 10 30 80 50
MKO 68 56 61 43 / 0 30 70 20
MIO 65 53 59 42 / 0 30 70 40
F10 68 54 61 43 / 10 40 60 20
HHW 71 58 65 46 / 0 30 70 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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