130
FXUS64 KTSA 271722
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE AREA.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA (40
MPH).
- MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE LATEST CAM RUNS HAVE VERY LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION TODAY, LIKELY FROM WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS BUT WILL INSERT
SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLE MENTION FOR NOW. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND
CLOUD FORECAST SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG IN THERE FOR MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MOS AND BRING THE
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO AS IT HAS DONE WELL THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
OUR SLUGGISH UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FINALLY DEPARTING THE REGION AND
BRINGING AN END TO MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG/ DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS
MORNING. FOG SHOULD LIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE STUBBORN AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS, SUN BREAKS WILL
LIKELY STILL OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS (60S NORTH, LOWER 70S SOUTH). GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TODAY, THOUGH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW MOVES EAST
ALONG THE RED RIVER, HELPING TO PULL A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO TICK UP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING/ AFTERNOON, BUT
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WITH WHO WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTAINING THE BETTER
MOISTURE. SOME SOLUTIONS PULL THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH INTO NE OK/ NW
AR, WHILE OTHERS KEEP RETURN FLOW RESTRICTED TO SE OK. EITHER WAY,
IT APPEARS AN AXIS OF 0.5" OR GREATER RAIN TOTALS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, COINCIDING WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA WITH
DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE FRONT, WITH MANY NORTHERN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S DESPITE SOME AFTERNOON
SUN.
IT STILL APPEARS NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG, WITH GUSTS NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(30-40 MPH). WINDS DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THIS
IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE, ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR TO ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES JUST TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FILLS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS,
KEEPING PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN CONTINUED CAA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN
THE 50S OR UPPER 40S ACROSS NW AR ZONES.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN NE OK AND NW AR. FREEZING TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, BUT FROST MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING THE CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL
AND PERHAPS BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. IT APPEARS
FALL MAY FINALLY BE HERE TO STAY, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
PILOTS CAN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE OK INTO NW AR, WHERE THUNDER CHANCES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP DOWN TO IFR RANGE
AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
NOTED AT MOST SITES EXCEPT NW AR SITES DUE TO TIMING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 55 60 46 / 10 30 80 30
FSM 68 57 62 46 / 0 30 90 40
MLC 69 56 64 45 / 10 60 80 20
BVO 63 51 59 43 / 0 30 80 30
FYV 64 50 61 40 / 10 20 80 60
BYV 60 51 60 42 / 0 10 90 80
MKO 66 55 61 44 / 10 40 80 30
MIO 63 53 60 42 / 0 10 80 60
F10 67 55 62 43 / 10 50 70 20
HHW 70 58 66 46 / 0 40 70 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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