069
FXUS64 KTSA 272350
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND LOW THUNDER CHANCES TO THE
AREA.
- STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA (40 MPH).
- MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM POTENTIAL
FOR FROST BY LATE WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY AS THE RELATIVELY COOL, MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STUBBORN TO
RETREAT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW. GOOD NEWS IS, THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIST HANGING ON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH SOME
WARM UP INTO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR. WHERE CLOUDS DO BREAK SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING,
PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER JET HAS PUNCHED INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN
OVER NORTH TEXAS, AIDING IN MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A FAIRLY STRONG ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS ON
THE NOSE OF THE INCOMING JET STREAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF INCREASED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UP ON THIS SCENARIO. DECENT
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND OVERALL STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
REGION COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FOR A
TIME, WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ELSEWHERE, INCREASING
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT ENTERS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUA INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH
BETTER THUNDER CHANCES STAYING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ADVANCE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL (40MPH)
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY
USHER OUT THE CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE LATER TO ARRIVE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY THE STRONG UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE OVER
THE REGION AND STRONG MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH 925-850MB FLOW IN THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AGAIN NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO PROGGED TO FILTER BACK
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST. ALL THIS TO SAY, A
RATHER "RAW" FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDY, DREARY
CONDITIONS, GUSTY NORTH WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY SHOVES EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LESSENING
WINDS AND SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE CLEARING WILL LEAD TO CRISP CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT WINDS HANGING ON SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT TO THE FAR NORTH ON THURSDAY. SUNNY AND COOL FINALLY
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WISE WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT
RAIN/CLOUD COVER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS RANGE. NICE FALL WEATHER LOOKS ON TAP BY
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO
NOSE INTO THE REGION.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS BEGIN TO DROP AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE BY THE
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS E OK AND NW
AR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES BETWEEN 10-18Z. BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH STRONG NW WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT...GUSTING
TO 30 KTS. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 60 46 54 / 30 80 30 20
FSM 57 62 46 54 / 30 90 40 40
MLC 56 64 45 54 / 60 80 20 20
BVO 51 59 43 53 / 30 80 30 20
FYV 50 61 40 50 / 20 80 60 60
BYV 51 60 42 50 / 10 90 80 70
MKO 55 61 44 53 / 40 80 30 30
MIO 53 60 42 51 / 10 80 60 40
F10 55 62 43 54 / 50 70 20 20
HHW 58 66 46 57 / 40 70 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...43
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