413
FXUS64 KTSA 281350
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 850 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
- STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA (40 MPH).
- MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM POTENTIAL
FOR FROST BY LATE WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGION WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING CONCERNS COULD STILL BE ONGOING IN
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WILL ENTER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS, ARRIVING NEAR THE
I-44 CORRIDOR AT AROUND 11AM- NOON. EXPANDING COVERAGE OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE COMING HOURS, SPREADING INTO FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY FALLING TO NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
FORECAST COVERS THESE TRENDS PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO QPF TOTALS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE RECENT
DATA.
BOWLAN
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AIDING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WITHIN THIS RETURN FLOW, A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTERACT WITH
AN INCREASING 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER AN EXPANDING AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 45-50KT COULD CREATE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THESE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CREATE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA.
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ARE FORECAST TO GET A PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT ORIENTED GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH FROM NOWATA CO TO PITTSBURG
CO AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA, THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
CWA WITH GREATER RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL EXISTS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH THE GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND EXIT TO THE EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EXITS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TO THE EAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR
40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
FORECAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY IS BEING PUSHED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE CWA TUESDAY MID/LATE
EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND DIG SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW AND INTERACTING WITH AN
INCREASING AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GREATER RAIN POTENTIAL IS FORECAST OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF WITH THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONE THING TO NOTE, IS WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY, PATCHY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY LINGER BEHIND THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE CWA. A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 55-70KT INTO THE REGION COULD TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD IMPACT HOW
MUCH OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EITHER
WAY, THERE REMAINS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY GUSTS OVER
THE CWA.
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES, GUSTY TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND CLOUD
COVER WILL CREATE A RAW DAY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO
THE LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE WIND GUSTS COULD CREATE WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WAVE EXITS, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WHICH
WILL AID IN LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FROST OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN UP JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS RETURN FLOW LOOKS
TO BE QUICKLY INTERRUPTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE QUITE
LIMITED FOR THE BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH, AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
PASSAGE DRY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE IMPACTED TOO MUCH AS
SOUTHERLY WIND QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY
AND 60S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
ONGOING CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OK
INTO WEST CENTRAL AR WILL PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. FURTHER EXPANSION IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATE STORMS IS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON WITH PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS AND A GRADUAL RISE IN CEILINGS IS LIKELY POST
FRONTAL THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WINDS PERSIST AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 46 53 41 / 80 30 30 0
FSM 61 46 54 42 / 90 50 50 10
MLC 64 45 54 40 / 60 10 20 0
BVO 59 43 52 37 / 80 30 30 0
FYV 59 41 52 36 / 90 80 70 10
BYV 57 42 52 38 / 90 80 80 10
MKO 61 44 53 40 / 90 30 30 0
MIO 58 43 52 38 / 90 80 60 0
F10 63 43 54 39 / 80 20 20 0
HHW 67 46 56 42 / 80 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...4
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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