105
FXUS64 KTSA 282331
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH AT TIMES.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO TOMORROW.
- FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RECENT GLM DATA
INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LARGELY WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH ANY MENTIONABLE THUNDER POTENTIAL LIKELY TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE SO FAR REMAINED WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH ANY
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAPAROUND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS DRIZZLE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING. HIGHS TOMORROW
REFLECT THE NBM'S 25TH PERCENTILE VALUES, WHICH MORE ACCURATELY
DEPICTS THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LOWER IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST MAY BECOME A
CONCERN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY, FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MORE SOLIDLY OVERHEAD AND
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED.
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SET TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE UNITED STATES. DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK, INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
THE REGION.
BEYOND THAT SYSTEM, A NOTICEABLE WARMUP APPEARS TO FOLLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A MIXED BAG OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVAILING
UNDERNEATH ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. CEILING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR A
FEW HOURS AT BVO, TUL, RVS, AND MLC TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR SOMETIME EARLY-MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, WITH
STRONGEST GUSTS, BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS, FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
MAINTAINING MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 52 40 61 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 46 53 42 61 / 50 40 0 0
MLC 45 54 39 62 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 44 51 35 60 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 41 50 35 58 / 80 60 0 0
BYV 42 50 37 56 / 90 80 0 0
MKO 45 52 40 60 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 44 52 37 58 / 70 40 0 0
F10 44 52 37 61 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 46 54 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67
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