206
FXUS64 KTSA 290518
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- STRONG WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS 40 TO
50 MPH AT TIMES.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FAR
EAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
- FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
ARKANSAS AND BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FROM TUESDAYS PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THIS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
COMBINE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER AN INCREASING AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE, LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GREATER POTENTIAL IS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS, CLOSER TO THE LOW
CENTER.
ALSO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50-65KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TOWARD 50 MPH REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE
CWA STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITHIN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THUS, WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY RIDE AS IS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA. WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALSO LOOK TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET DISSIPATES, SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES COULD REMAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LIGHT RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EARLY WEDNESDAY START OUT IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THE CONDITIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS VALUES IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP
JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT A MORE WIDER COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF WARMER CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
RETURNS FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT WAVE. THUS, WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH WITH A POTENTIALLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME, TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH IMPACTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BACK INTO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND
WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH DRY OR NOT. WILL JUST
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND
LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS INTO MVFR LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NW AR. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO
EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH LITTLE TO NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE LATE IN THE DAY WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY EVENING. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 40 61 41 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 54 43 61 40 / 60 0 0 0
MLC 55 40 63 37 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 52 37 60 35 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 49 37 58 35 / 70 0 0 0
BYV 49 38 55 38 / 80 0 0 0
MKO 52 41 61 37 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 51 39 58 35 / 50 0 0 0
F10 54 39 62 35 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 55 41 62 38 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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