818
FXUS64 KTSA 291727
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- STRONG WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH
AT TIMES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
- FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A RAW, WINDY DAY IS IN PROGRESS AREAWIDE, WITH WIDESPREAD 35 TO 45
MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT RAIN ONGOING. GIVEN RECENT
WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 4 PM, WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS EXPECTED AFTERWARD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST, BOTH THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE NOTABLE
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
9 AM THURSDAY FOR THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LOWER IMPACT WEATHER LIKELY REMAINS ON TAP TO END THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PLEASANT DAY TOMORROW, MORE EXTENSIVE FROST AND
FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MORE SOLIDLY ATOP THE REGION.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SET TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING A
BRIEF BUT NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NONZERO BUT APPEARS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD, LEADING TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, GENERALLY 2-4 KFT IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND 0.5-2 KFT IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL AREAS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS PERSISTING.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET, BUT WILL NOT GO TOTALLY CALM
TONIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 39 60 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 42 61 40 66 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 39 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 35 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 35 57 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 37 56 37 61 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 39 59 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 37 58 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
F10 37 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 40 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ049-053>076.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-055-059-
064-065.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06
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