177
FXUS64 KTSA 301436
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 930 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- MEDIUM-HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER FROST COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- WEAK STORM SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE AND THE FROST
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
HAD DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THOUGH SFC OBS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS OF
LATE. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER THROUGH MID- MORNING
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO LAND IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NW AR, WITH LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. MAIN EDITS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WERE TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS, WITH THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
WINDS HAVE DRASTICALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AR FROM EARLIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST AR AND SOUTHEAST OK, BUT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AS THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY
TRYING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER TN. CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD YIELD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING,
BEST OVERALL CONDITIONS OCCURRING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OK
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 33 AND 36 DEGREES BY
SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM. LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY ALSO BRIEFLY
OCCUR IN HILLY AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST AR AND
SOUTHEAST OK.
BEYOND THE FROST POTENTIAL, THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL, UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-40 AND LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-40.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
OVERALL, ANTICIPATE MAINLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RIPEN FROST CONDITIONS FOR A MUCH WIDER AREA COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AREAWIDE. WILL
FORGO ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT ONE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DROPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO VARY IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODELS SHOW A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON,
WITH LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS. BECAUSE OF
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW,
WILL LEAVE NON-MENTIONABLE POPS (BELOW 15%) IN THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE PWATS REMAINING LESS THAN AN INCH,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST A MENTION OF LOW POPS WILL
NEED TO BE ADDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST PACKAGES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR WHERE PWATS WILL BE
HIGHEST.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER, RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY
TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES LOOKING UNLIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NW AR AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING. PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
THESE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE THE STRATUS ERODES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 61 38 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 63 36 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 61 33 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 58 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 58 37 62 42 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 61 36 65 45 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 59 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 10
F10 61 36 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 63 38 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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