565
FXUS64 KTSA 301723
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- HIGH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
- A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY TO BRING LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, AS WELL AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL FROST
AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP, WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUN
THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS, WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, LEADING TO MORE EXTENSIVE FROST
DEVELOPMENT THAN SEEN THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXISTS, AS WELL. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES FROM 3
AM TO 9 AM.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
GENERALLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST TOMORROW WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
NIGHT. LOW RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EVENT SHOULD BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
EXTEND INTO SUNDAY, BUT THEREAFTER, MUCH WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON CUMULUS, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 39 64 45 58 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 38 66 47 61 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 38 68 45 63 / 0 0 0 20
BVO 34 64 40 55 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 32 64 40 57 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 36 62 43 55 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 37 64 46 60 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 35 63 42 55 / 0 0 0 10
F10 37 66 44 61 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 39 67 47 61 / 0 0 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ054>076.
AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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