725
FXUS64 KTSA 311704
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES, AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
HAPPY HALLOWEEN! IT SHOULD BE A WONDERFUL NIGHT FOR TRICKS OR
TREATS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE GOING INTO
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GENERALLY FAVORED THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. WHILE IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY, THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (~10%) FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK BY LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WANES AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES, WITH THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE PUSHES
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. DESPITE POOR MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE COULD STILL MANAGE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGHEST
RAIN POTENTIAL (10-30% CHANCE) AND QPF EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST... WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO. BY MID AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
EXITING THE AREA WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AND CLEARING SKIES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE 40S, WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING OUT
OF THE 50S/ LOWER 60S GIVEN EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND MODEST CAA
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURES SETTLES IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. KEEPING
WITH THE THEME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LOWS WERE DECREASED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE NBM IN SPOTS TO BETTER CAPTURE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE POTENTIAL. THIS RESULTS
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN SPOTS ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR, AND LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS E OK AND NW AR.
HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT A MIX OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RETURN TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-ABOVE
AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM
BEING WELL TO THE NORTH, IMPACTS IN OUR AREA APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 15-18 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS
ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NE OK AND FAR NW AR TERMINALS
THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS THAT LOW IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION IN LATER
ISSUANCES. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGHEST AT THE NE OK SITES. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE RAIN TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL,
EXCEPT LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE NE OK SITES AND XNA/ROG, WHERE
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO JUST UNDER
10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 59 34 60 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 47 62 37 60 / 10 30 0 0
MLC 45 63 34 64 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 40 56 29 60 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 40 58 28 57 / 10 30 0 0
BYV 43 56 32 56 / 10 30 0 0
MKO 47 60 33 61 / 10 30 0 0
MIO 43 56 31 58 / 20 20 0 0
F10 45 61 32 62 / 10 20 0 0
HHW 48 64 36 63 / 10 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ054>076.
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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