147
FXUS64 KTSA 312333
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES, AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
HAPPY HALLOWEEN! IT SHOULD BE A WONDERFUL NIGHT FOR TRICKS OR
TREATS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE GOING INTO
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GENERALLY FAVORED THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. WHILE IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY, THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (~10%) FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK BY LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WANES AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES, WITH THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE PUSHES
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. DESPITE POOR MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE COULD STILL MANAGE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGHEST
RAIN POTENTIAL (10-30% CHANCE) AND QPF EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST... WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO. BY MID AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
EXITING THE AREA WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AND CLEARING SKIES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE 40S, WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING OUT
OF THE 50S/ LOWER 60S GIVEN EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND MODEST CAA
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURES SETTLES IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. KEEPING
WITH THE THEME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LOWS WERE DECREASED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE NBM IN SPOTS TO BETTER CAPTURE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE POTENTIAL. THIS RESULTS
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN SPOTS ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR, AND LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS E OK AND NW AR.
HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT A MIX OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RETURN TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-ABOVE
AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM
BEING WELL TO THE NORTH, IMPACTS IN OUR AREA APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LOWER VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT NORTHEAST
OK SITES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTHWEST AR CLOSER TO 12Z. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE
THAT MVFR CEILINGS OCCUR IN AR WITH THE PRECIPITATION BUT
CONTINUED TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN SPREAD
IN GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THEN NORTHWEST IN THE AFERNOON AT OR BELOW 10 KT. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST AR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES NEARBY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 46 59 34 / 0 20 20 0
FSM 67 47 62 37 / 0 10 30 0
MLC 68 45 63 34 / 0 10 20 0
BVO 65 40 56 29 / 0 20 10 0
FYV 64 40 58 28 / 0 10 30 0
BYV 63 43 56 32 / 0 10 30 0
MKO 67 47 60 33 / 0 10 30 0
MIO 64 43 56 31 / 0 20 20 0
F10 67 45 61 32 / 0 10 20 0
HHW 67 48 64 36 / 0 10 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ054>076.
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...24
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