173
FXUS64 KTSA 170520
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THIS MORNING (MONDAY) AND AGAIN
TONIGHT.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY W/
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH PRIMARY HAZARD BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS (MONDAY) MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN ON TOP OF ISENTROPIC LIFTING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE, CONSENSUS IN LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR EAST/NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR. THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND/OR LIFTING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME,
REACHING FAR NORTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK APART AND THIN IN THE VICINITY AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CAUSING SOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND EVEN UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY/DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULDN'T BE
DRASTICALLY LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON, LIMITED AND LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY TAKE SHAPE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN NORTHEAST OK WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZIEST AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST (35-45 PERCENT).
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
(MONDAY NIGHT) INTO TUESDAY MORNING , MAINLY FOR AREAS IN FAR
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR (20-40% CHANCE). THIS IS DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING, COINCIDING WITH THE PASSING
OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY IMPACT PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
SHEAR, AND LIFT IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AT
THE TAIL-END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHWEST AR TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR, BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND LOW-MID 80S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE ONSET FOR HIGHER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHEN MODELS
INDICATE A LOBE OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TAP INTO THE MOISTURE AND CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
INITIALLY AS THIS ACTIVITY GETS GOING, BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL LEAD TO FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. PWATS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SURGE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
BY THURSDAY MORNING, VALUES NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THESE PWAT VALUES, AS WELL AS THE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT, WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE A
DOWNWARD TREND BEGINS AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TAPERS OFF BY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY DEPARTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. THINGS STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRASTICALLY BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DATA.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL DIFFERENT PERIODS AT MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING AROUND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES GOING
FROM CEILINGS TO SCATTERED LAYERS AT SOME LOCATIONS. DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST DURING THE DAY IN THE TERRAIN OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.
SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR 2000 FEET IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
IN AND NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 79 59 77 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 55 76 62 83 / 10 20 30 0
MLC 59 83 65 84 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 47 77 51 75 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 50 70 60 78 / 0 20 40 0
BYV 49 68 58 78 / 0 20 40 0
MKO 56 79 64 79 / 10 10 20 0
MIO 50 73 59 74 / 0 20 20 0
F10 56 81 62 80 / 0 10 10 0
HHW 61 82 67 84 / 10 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...08
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