057
FXUS64 KTSA 171807
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARY
HAZARD BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WHILE A SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS TRACKS
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
LIFTING FRONT, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AID IN LIFTING UPPER 50 TO
MID 60 DEG DEWPOINTS BACK OVER THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT, AS
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ERODE, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM CONDITIONS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
WARM DEWPOINTS.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EXPAND BACK
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES AND
INSTABILITY SETTING UP OVER THE REGION FROM THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KT
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD TAPER OFF/EXIT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE EXITING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A TRAILING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD DEVELOP AREAS OF LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WHILE LOWER 80S DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHICH PUSHES A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CWA. THE CWA LOOKS TO GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY BACK NORTH OF THE
CWA. IN RESPONSE, THIS BEGINS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LEAD IMPULSE/VORT MAX LIFTING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THIS IMPULSE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THEN SPREADS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES AGAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH THE VORT MAX, WHICH CREATES AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUS, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LATEST DATA FOR THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS, THOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FLOODING
CONCERNS IS MAINLY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY, THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
AS A DRY SLOT TRIES TO WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE
CWA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EXITING WITH FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES MORE
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
ONGOING MVFR CIGS ACROSS E OK SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ALL PLACES BECOMING VFR. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO NW AR
SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOME THIS EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING
UP AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LOW CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR NE OK INTO NW AR
LATE TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY SITE
RIGHT NOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO SPREAD BACK
INTO NW AR SITES TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST WAS THE FRONT
PASSES.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 77 50 74 / 10 0 0 20
FSM 63 83 54 79 / 20 0 0 20
MLC 67 85 54 80 / 10 0 0 30
BVO 52 75 44 71 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 63 78 48 75 / 40 0 0 10
BYV 61 78 49 73 / 40 0 0 10
MKO 64 80 51 78 / 20 0 0 20
MIO 60 75 47 72 / 40 0 0 10
F10 62 80 51 78 / 10 0 0 20
HHW 68 85 62 81 / 10 0 0 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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