057
FXUS64 KTSA 182320
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY (TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND HUMID
FOR MID NOVEMBER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S(NORTH) TO MID 50S
(SOUTH) WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
AN UNSETTLED MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SPREADING OVER THE WHOLE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A
FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A PSEUDO WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO RESIDE. THE BIGGER THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD STORM TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED,
AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A REAL BIG THREAT AS MOST OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN IN A DRY PERIOD FOR THE LAST MONTH, BUT SOME LOCAL FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, OR URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN RATES OCCUR.
PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRY THINGS
OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO NEARER
SEASONAL NORMALS, THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THINGS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK. STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN AS
RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS AROUND.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIKELY PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL AR
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALSO THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ACROSS NORTHWEST AR, BUT UNCERTAIN COVERAGE AND DURATION DUE TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 48 72 60 69 / 0 10 60 90
FSM 54 77 61 72 / 0 10 60 90
MLC 53 79 64 73 / 0 20 60 90
BVO 41 69 54 68 / 0 10 60 80
FYV 47 74 59 69 / 0 10 60 90
BYV 47 70 58 67 / 0 0 60 80
MKO 50 76 61 69 / 0 10 60 90
MIO 45 69 57 67 / 0 0 70 80
F10 49 76 61 70 / 0 20 60 90
HHW 59 80 64 72 / 0 20 60 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page