025
FXUS64 KTSA 220452
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- AREAS OF FOG LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SOME DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
- AFTER MONDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE UP DEPARTING LOW
RESULTING IN EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AR PRESENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR KS AND MO BORDERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. OVERALL ANTICIPATE
A COOLER AFTERNOON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOST
PERSISTENT, MOST LIKELY AREA BEING NORTHWEST AR AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF NORTHEAST OK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. SCENARIO WILL FAVOR AT LEAST
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER
LOW, WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING BY SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED OVER SOUTHEAST OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL AR, AND THIS AREA SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS ROUND BEING ONLY A FEW
DAYS REMOVED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHERE THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS OVERLAP SOMEWHAT
HIGHER INSTABILITY, AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AS SCT TO BKN LOW
CLOUDS EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
DETERIORATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR ALL SITES. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/ OR REDUCED
VSBYS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NW AR SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH E OK
LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NW AR SITES MAY
TEND TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR LONGER, POTENTIALLY BEYOND
00Z. LIGHT NNW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 59 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 50 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 62 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 44 60 37 65 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 47 57 42 67 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 49 56 43 65 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 48 59 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 47 56 41 65 / 10 10 0 0
F10 46 61 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 46 63 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...43
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