126
FXUS64 KTSA 221759
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING; MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE OF SOME DENSE FOG.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
- AFTER MONDAY, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
IT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE FALL TODAY. THICK STRATUS CLOUDS THAT
FORMED BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT YESTERDAY REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM AND CURRENTLY VARY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S, RESPECTIVELY. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, GIVEN LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER EASTERN OK AND
WESTERN AR. THE STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK APART
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHWEST AR. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, AND A SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS, FOG LOOKS
PREVALENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HREF,
SREF, CONSSHORT, AND NBM HAVE MODERATE-HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND SUGGEST FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND OR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, DENSEST FOG OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44
CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 40S
TONIGHT.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MORE MILD AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE DRIFTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRAW IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL OK INTO EASTERN OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WESTERN AR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PEAK
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG 300MB
JET (100+ KNOTS) MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BY THE
AFTERNOON AS MUCAPE INCREASES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. WITH
VIRTUALLY ALL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER, AND A DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE, THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PWATS INCREASE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES
(90TH+ PERCENTILE) BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS IN MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY VARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. IN
GENERAL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2” WILL BE COMMON, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A FEW SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL TRANSPIRE BEGINNING TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND ON THANKSGIVING DAY,
(HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S) AND RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S). NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME NEXT
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND
RENEWED LOW CLOUD/FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS THE
CLEARING LINE PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS WITH CONTINUED
ADVANCEMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK. CLEARING
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST OK SITES 23-01Z WITH ANY BREAKS
ACROSS WESTERN AR TEMPORARY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND FOG
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON
AT KMLC. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO
LIFR ACROSS WESTERN AR TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT. FOG/STRATUS WILL
AGAIN BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS AR WHILE EASTERN OK SITES SEE
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 42 64 52 61 / 0 0 70 70
FSM 46 68 51 61 / 0 0 70 90
MLC 43 68 52 64 / 0 0 90 90
BVO 37 64 47 61 / 0 0 60 70
FYV 42 67 49 61 / 0 0 60 90
BYV 43 66 47 58 / 0 0 40 90
MKO 43 65 52 61 / 0 0 80 80
MIO 41 64 49 60 / 0 0 60 80
F10 41 65 51 62 / 0 0 90 70
HHW 44 66 52 64 / 0 0 80 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...24
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