219
FXUS64 KTSA 090109
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUACHITAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY TO THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS, KEEPING TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
DATA INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG FROM
THE OUACHITAS DOWN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN REGIME. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE LATEST SHORT
TERM DATA, AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE GRIDS.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD BY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
STAY CONSTANT OR GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME MORE SHELTERED, GENERALLY COOLER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20S.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
DRY COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
(DOWNSLOPE) FLOW SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME IS
CONDUCIVE TO A QUICK WARMUP OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS FOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE BREEZY WINDS,
RELATIVELY DRY AIR, AND WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LOCALLY RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS REMOVED FROM ANY
KIND OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON THE WARMER
END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS THE NBM IS GENERALLY TOO LOW
IN THESE QUICK TRANSITION PERIODS. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT, THOUGH STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPS WILL RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER, ARCTIC FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR APPEARS
TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. STILL, A GLANCING BLOW
WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RANGE OF GUIDANCE, STUCK WITH THE NBM BLEND FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
PREDOMINATELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD. A COUPLE
THINGS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY
MORNING AT KMLC AND KFSM. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND A LOW CLOUD CIG, BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE OUACHITAS. GIVEN LOW CHANCES, HAVE LEFT LOW
CLOUD MENTION OUT OF KMLC FOR NOW. ALSO, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUD IN THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
MORNING. ELECTED TO USE A TEMPO SCT CLOUD MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CHANCES FOR A CIG.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 33 62 43 56 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 31 61 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 63 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 61 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 58 42 55 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 58 44 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 32 60 42 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 32 58 41 54 / 0 0 0 0
F10 33 62 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 61 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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