617
FXUS64 KTSA 101721
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS (WEDNESDAY)
MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
BEFORE ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
AS OF THIS WRITING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS (WEDNESDAY)
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY,
WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BEFORE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS AND MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT,
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT (GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75).
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S (LOWER 50S IN FAR NORTHEAST OK AND
FAR NORTHWEST AR), OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER CA AND TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LOCALLY MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TURNING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER-50S AND LOWER-60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY MORE
RUGGED, BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES VERIFY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S) TO SOUTH
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S) DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH A SORT OF CLASH
OF DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. THIS CLASHING WONT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND
WONT LAST TOO LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
THROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EXACT
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS STILL NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN. MODELS
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S BOTH NIGHTS. THE
COLDEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S NORTH OF I-40; WINDCHILL VALUES WOULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IF THIS VERIFIES. KEPT
UNMENTIONABLE (10%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST-CENTRAL AR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND MAY DRAW UP
ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW SHOWERS. EVERYWHERE ELSE
REMAINS DRY.
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND BRING BACK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING IN A LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AT TIMES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH PAST
03-06Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 35 63 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 63 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 31 64 38 51 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 31 58 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 57 43 53 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 33 61 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 33 59 39 48 / 0 0 0 0
F10 34 63 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 33 59 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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