708
FXUS64 KTSA 101818
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
- AFTER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPEDITED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD H500 NW FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
60S FOR HIGH TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA, WITH MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS IN NW ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. GOING INTO SUNDAY,
A NOTABLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID
DECEMBER. AREAS ACROSS FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NW ARKANSAS MAY SEE
AREAS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS TULSA ITSELF. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE MAIN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CAA ENTERING THE REGION WILL FACTOR IN HOW WIDESPREAD
THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE, AND WILL UPDATE
ACCORDINGLY WITH FUTURE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF BACK
INTO PORTIONS OF SE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS. THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANCES (10-20% CHANCE) FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MAIN TROUGH
MOVES EAST, RAIN CHANCES COULD THEN SPREAD MORE INTO NW ARKANSAS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE EXCEPTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AT TIMES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH PAST
03-06Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 35 63 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 63 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 31 64 38 51 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 31 58 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 57 43 53 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 33 61 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 33 59 39 48 / 0 0 0 0
F10 34 63 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 33 59 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page