171
FXUS64 KTSA 111119
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
- STRONG, DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY; WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW (BELOW 20%) OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
MOSTLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SIMULTANEOUSLY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS, STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS, WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH, ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ARISE AROUND MIDDAY
AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW IN WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
DISTRICT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN OK, AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT ELSEWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. FIRE SPREAD RATES COULD EXCEED
100 FEET/MIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, UPPER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
FAR NORTHWEST AR, UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN APPROACH 70 DEGREES FOR A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WITH A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY MORNING, PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM
UP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SATURDAY AS A STRONG
1044-1045MB SURFACE HIGH DESCENDS FROM CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THEIR
RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS. A FEW OF THE COLDER SOLUTIONS KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ON SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS
NORTH OF I-40. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ESPECIALLY COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. IF THE
FORECAST VERIFIES, MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
0 DEGREES NEAR THE OK/KS BORDERS. A QUICK AND ABRUPT WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EASTWARD AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 20%)
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW
SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE (BELOW 15%) FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. THESE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME IN LATER FORECASTS IF TRENDS
CONTINUE.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 40 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 63 40 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 64 41 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 65 37 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 60 41 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 58 43 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 63 41 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 60 38 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 65 41 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 61 40 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05
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