830
FXUS64 KTSA 120452
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS LOCALLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF
I-40.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND CLEAR SE
OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS IS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK INTO FAR NW AR AND THESE WINDS
COULD LOCALLY RAISE GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AT PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S.
THE COLD SNAP IS SHORT LIVED WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, AND LIKELY
BEYOND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH OF VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LLWS FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL PERSIST FOR
MOST TAF SITES UNTIL A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
STARTING AROUND 10Z, WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHERLY LLWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE OK SITES. BY LATE MORNING,
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS AGAIN NEAR 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN
NE OK. WINDS DECREASE BY SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 40 52 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 63 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 40 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 49 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 55 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 41 51 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 40 55 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 37 46 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
F10 40 55 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 40 65 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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