470
FXUS64 KTSA 122329
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- BREEZY POST FRONTAL WINDS LOCALLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF
I-40.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT. WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND A COLDER AIRMASS, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER
30S IN THE SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
RETURN FLOW BRIEFLY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF SE OK/ W-CENTRAL AR AS MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER MORE
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH, BUT CLOUD COVERAGE COULD COMPLICATE THIS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY DECREASE WITH NORTHERN
EXTENT, PERHAPS REMAINING BELOW 50 DEGREES NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
TOMORROW, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR 20S AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS,
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NE OK
AND NW AR... PERHAPS NEAR ZERO CLOSE TO THE KS/ MO BORDERS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS APPARENT TEMPS JUST OUTSIDE
CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH...
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR PARTS OF NE OK AND NW
AR. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUITE NICELY, BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/ LOWER
50S. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BECOMING LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON INCREASING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DID INCLUDE A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR MOVING OVER THE OK SITES, AS WELL
AS KXNA AND KROG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE, TIMING, AND DURATION OF THE CEILINGS ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 30 52 19 32 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 36 56 27 39 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 55 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 26 49 15 30 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 31 54 18 33 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 30 53 16 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 32 54 21 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 28 48 15 29 / 0 0 0 0
F10 30 56 20 34 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 38 54 30 42 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67
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