892
FXUS64 KTSA 131145
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF
I-40.
- COLD SUNDAY WITH QUICK WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MID WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR WILL LAG AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARM
MODIFIED BY EXPANDING CLOUD COVER IN THE PRE FRONTAL SECTOR. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. VERY COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE OCCURRING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR ANY PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH
THE DAY. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AR WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY MONDAY. THE COLD WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
BROAD FETCH OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES. A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT TIMED FOR THURSDAY PRIMARILY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MINOR
AND THE PREVAILING PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WARM AND DRY
FOR MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO FILL IN ACROSS NE OK THIS MORNING WHILE
ALSO STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SE OK SITES WITH LESS
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE WILL BE NOTED ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR
SITES. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR VSBY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO PREVALENT THIS MORNING FOR ALL SITES AND SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NE OK BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL SITES. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FRONTAL SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MORE LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO
SCATTER OUT MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 19 32 22 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 58 25 39 21 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 59 22 37 21 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 15 32 17 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 56 17 34 15 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 54 15 29 17 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 54 20 35 22 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 47 14 29 20 / 0 0 0 0
F10 55 20 34 22 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 57 28 41 22 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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