020
FXUS64 KTSA 131702
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1102 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF
I-40.
- COLD SUNDAY WITH QUICK WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MID WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR WILL LAG AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARM
MODIFIED BY EXPANDING CLOUD COVER IN THE PRE FRONTAL SECTOR. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. VERY COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE OCCURRING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR ANY PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH
THE DAY. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AR WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY MONDAY. THE COLD WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
BROAD FETCH OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES. A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT TIMED FOR THURSDAY PRIMARILY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MINOR
AND THE PREVAILING PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WARM AND DRY
FOR MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
TOUGH LOW CLOUD FORECAST TODAY, POSING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
AVIATION. AN EXTENSIVE MVFR DECK, FEATURING PATCHES OF IFR
CONDITIONS, PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
FORECAST DATA ARE NOT HANDLING THE EXTENT OF THIS DECK WELL AT
ALL. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
DECK STAYING LARGELY INTACT UNTIL DRIER POST-STRONG COLD FRONTAL
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD/AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS SUCH,
WILL HANG ONTO AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING AT ALL TERMINALS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONE THING OF NOTE, THERE IS A SMALL-ISH
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF BVO THAT MAY NOSE INTO THAT
SITE IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANDLE
THAT WITH TEMPO VFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE CEILING
CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS, EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 40 17 33 22 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 25 38 23 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 48 21 36 23 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 14 30 19 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 47 15 31 19 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 41 13 29 18 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 18 35 23 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 39 13 30 19 / 10 0 0 0
F10 45 19 34 22 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 27 42 24 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
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