808
FXUS64 KTSA 131814
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES NORTH OF I-40 SUNDAY MORNING.
- COLD SUNDAY WITH QUICK WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MID WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR, CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
KANSAS, REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS, THAT HAD STREAMED NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITHIN THE
925-MB SOUTHERLY FLOW, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ELEVATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN RESPONSE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH
MORE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR. BY EARLY EVENING, TEMPERATURES OF MID 20S IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO MID 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER
ARE FORECAST
ONCE THE THE ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE CWA, ASSOCIATED
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ALSO SPREAD
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST, CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
SCATTERING OUT/EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE HINTS WITHIN
THE SHORT-TERM DATA FOR MESOSCALE CLOUD STREAKS ORIENTED FROM
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HOLDING ON INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE COULD LINE UP WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA LAKES. ALSO, LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT THE
GREATER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALOFT AND OMEGA SHOULD EXIT WITH THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUD
STREAKS. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 30S BY MID EVENING, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR
THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND ZERO DEGREES. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA, LOW TEMPERATURES OF UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS, COLD CONDITIONS
REMAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTH TO AROUND 40
DEGREES SOUTH. ONCE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST, LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD AID IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS, AND STILL UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, SHOULD REMAIN THE COLDER LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
EITHER WAY, LOW TEMPERATUES SUNDAY NIGHT OF UPPER TEENS AND 20S
ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND LOOKS
TO REMAIN COMMON THROUGH MID WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS FROM A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL AID IN A QUICK WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S/60S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO, WHILE A PIECE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE, A MORE DEFINED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW
FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS
NEXT FRONT, TEMPERATURES ONLY LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE FAR EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE ARE INDICATIONS
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION
NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
TOUGH LOW CLOUD FORECAST TODAY, POSING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
AVIATION. AN EXTENSIVE MVFR DECK, FEATURING PATCHES OF IFR
CONDITIONS, PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
FORECAST DATA ARE NOT HANDLING THE EXTENT OF THIS DECK WELL AT
ALL. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
DECK STAYING LARGELY INTACT UNTIL DRIER POST-STRONG COLD FRONTAL
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD/AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS SUCH,
WILL HANG ONTO AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING AT ALL TERMINALS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONE THING OF NOTE, THERE IS A SMALL-ISH
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF BVO THAT MAY NOSE INTO THAT
SITE IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANDLE
THAT WITH TEMPO VFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE CEILING
CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS, EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 17 33 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 25 38 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 21 36 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 14 30 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 15 31 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 13 29 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 18 35 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 13 30 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
F10 19 34 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 27 42 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22
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