941
FXUS64 KTSA 140512
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL
VALUES NORTH OF I-40 SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT PASSES, OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
COLD ARCTIC AIR IS SPILLING IN THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT, WITH LOWS OF 15-20 F NORTH OF I-40, AND 20-27
F SOUTH OF THERE. WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH WILL BE BITTER,
RANGING FROM AROUND -2 F TO +5 F SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 F BY THE RED RIVER. A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DOWNSTREAM OF AREA LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT BY THE TIME ITS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT MOST OF
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD, WITH LOTS OF MOSTLY 20-25
F. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH A RAPID
REVERSAL TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK MONDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERTAKES
THE LINGERING COLD AIR, SO HELD TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
60S FOR TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY,
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL
STILL ALLOW FOR A PUSH OF SHALLOW COOL AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR, BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATE PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES EVEN
HIGHER, PERHAPS INTO THE 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCE THURSDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BREAK UP ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 08-09Z BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS BECOME
PREVAILING WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE CALMING
DOWN A BIT QUICKER AS STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT INTO WESTERN OK
AND WEST TX SO DROPPED GUSTS AT MOST SITES BEFORE 10Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 17 32 23 / MMM 0 0 0
FSM 51 25 38 22 / MMM 0 0 0
MLC 49 21 37 23 / MMM 0 0 0
BVO 37 14 31 19 / MMM 0 0 0
FYV 49 15 33 20 / MMM 0 0 0
BYV 43 13 30 20 / MMM 0 0 0
MKO 47 18 35 24 / MMM 0 0 0
MIO 39 13 30 21 / MMM 0 0 0
F10 47 19 34 23 / MMM 0 0 0
HHW 57 27 40 23 / MMM 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...24
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